[TCDPCO] presidential politics

[alanmcorwin at juno.com]

I've analyzed some electoral vote projections which show
Clinton would do better than Obama in the electoral
college vote. However, that's pretty much academic
because she's unlikely to win the nomination.

Most of the key states to watch are in the Midwest.
including Iowa, Missouri and Wisconsin. That makes
a case for Obama to choose former Iowa Governor
Vilsick as his running mate. Yes, I am aware of
studies which indicate that choice of a running
mate really does not matter. 

Clinton takes Arkansas;and Florida; Obama loses both.
In Florida the concern is that Obama will lose the Jewish 
vote. Clinton takes Kentucky and West Virginia based on 
the demographics while Obama doesn't have a chance in 
either state. Obama takes Colorado. Indiana, Michigan, 
Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia are in play.  Surprisingly,
Obama has an outside chance in South Carolina because
of the heavy Afro-American vote. That would be a shocker. 

Most of the rest of states are in the same column they were 
in 2004. Of course, a lot of things can happen between now 
and November. I wonder if the numbers will change as the 
general public gets to know Obama better. Keep in mind that 
up until now Clinton and Obama have been concentrating on
winning Democratic delegates. From this point forward the 
focus will shift to the general public which really doesn't know 
much about Obama. It ain't over until it's over.

Signed,   Nisqually Nordmann, semi-retiring
                  community activist at large
                   alanmcorwin at juno.com 
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